EUR/USD - Target met..

Alright.. I closed my buy position (see earlier post) around 1.4100 area, not bad for today. For next move, I would like to see first on early monday (Tokyo time), how traders over there fix the price. I think most traders seems to agree that as long as price below 1.4140/50 area then its a signals that price will heading lower. Well.. let see what happen.

EUR/USD - Today pivot and resistance..

Alright... price grinding higher as I'm expected and now its dancing around today second resistance which stay at 1.4036, meanwhile today pivot is at 1.3960. From here 2 things will happen (I think)

1. Price fails around 1.4050 and start heading lower or..
2. From here, 1.4030/35 price maintain the pedals and go to test the earliest resistance at 1.4120 and 1.4130 level..

I'm favour the second one :) off course with risk management.

EUR/USD - didn't touch trendline C and now dancing at today pivot

Price did not touch Trendline C and now still dancing between today 1st support and pivot level. I think for next move (short term) traders will try to push higher targetting 1.4080 and may be 1.4140 (I think)

EUR/USD - They push price lower.. but Trendline C looks like to hold..

OK.. price didn't touch ssecond resistance and from 1.4140 its just collapse like a stone. Other analysis said that there much room for downside but I think we should look at Trendline C.

Would this trendline hold price and then push price higher again? let see how Tokyo fixing the price..

EUR/USD - Above trendline A but still below 1.4170

Here we go.. its always like that, when everybody seems to agree the same thing where market will go then market will revese itself. Alright.. price penetrate above Trendline A, it is important to see how strong the second resistance which held at 1.4170/80 area. Some say that this is the level of turning point.. I'm not sure, let see what will happen next.

DOW JONES - Looks heavy but 8100 should support..

They would buy more debt.. thats for sure, since March FED already purchase more than 170 Billion dollar treasurys dan today diorang akn purchase lagi..

Based on chart kat atas.. price stay below trendline A, means the next move is heavy towards to the downside I think, however 8100 should provide support for any downside move.. at the moment sbb 2 hari yng lepas price decline untk 'cover' gap (yng bertanda right). FOMC meeting.. let see the efect.

EUR/USD... all downward bias

So far, baik dari elliotwave.com dan juga analisis dari action forex.com dan juga saya sendiri, semua pointed yng price akn turun means dollar weakness. Not sure how far they will go down but boleh baca analisis diorang kat sini dan juga kat sini

Based on chart kat atas, trendline B probably sedang menunggu price untk tiba kesitu. Esok dan lusa ada FOMC meeting.. let see cemana diorang decide tentang interest rates..

USD/CAD ...

Ok.. untk next week dan seterusnya saya cadang untk concentrate pada USD/CAD, AUD/USD DA NZD/USD since saya kena masuk keja pada petang harinya.

OK .. chart diatas adalah analisis ringkas bagi USD/CAD. dalam chart yng pertama (4hour chart), jelas sekali skrang price stay below 100% Fibonacci level. Usually this will create selling opportunity untk target 161.8% Fibo extension (chart kedua) iaitu di area 1.1710 dan 261.8% extension iaitu di area 1.1270. But.. either price will drop like a stone atau slowly decline to that area.. No one knows.

dalam chart yng ketiga (Daily chart), dapat dilihat ada dua trendline iaitu A dan B, so kita lihat today closing, jika brake Trendline B then next week the focus is down, but sekiranya tidak brake.. then ada probability yng price akn test dulu mana2 area berdekatan dgn Trendline A then baru decline. So.. keep study..

1.2512.. mungkiin short term support..

mula-mula buat gap di wave IV then terus decline ke wave V ,selepas print 1.2512 sebagai harga terendah then dari situ price terus rebound dan sekarang stay di 1.2800... iaitu di 50% Fibo area.. yng menariknya gap tersebut telah pun dicover. minggu ini kerja malam tapi responsibility ditempat kerja dah bertambah so mungkin tak masuk apa2 position lagi.

finally it brake..

finally today price brake lower.. skrang stay area 1.2560. minggu ni keja ptng so mungkin tak masuk apa2 position.

false brake... is it?

price cuba untk print for a new low but 1.2700 still contain. ada analisis cakap ini adalah false brake. yng menarik it seems semua market sekarang terutamanya US Dollar index.. near force decision. either brake upside or downside which akn effect pada euro nanti... cuma persoalannya bila price akn brake. ada article pada title

profit and loss

monday and tuesday is the best trade I had... rabu takdak trade then yesterday dapat losses, erase semua gain yng dapat pada hari isnin dan selasa. memang hampeh.. but so far margin still ok. not much to say..strategy for today and next week ialah sell on rally or joint buying spree... atau dlm bahasa lain disebut 'speculate'... ada article tntg euro darii fxdd said momentum is down but before that we could see a test near 1.3325 first.. interesting.

today pivot level, supoort and resistance...

• 3rd resis - 1.30630
• 2nd resis - 1.29784
• 1st resis - 1.29262 - now 5.40pm price dancing around here..
• PIVOT LEVEL - 1.28416
• 1st supp - 1.27570
• 2nd supp - 1.27048
• 3rd supp - 1.26202

balik dari kerja...

excellent.. corak dan pergerakannya betul cuma kedudukan harga saja tidak tepat . seperti yng saya expect price near turning point but turning pointnya ialah diarea 1.3070 bukannya di 1.3020 dan selepas itu price terus decline dan test area 1.2835 bukannya 1.2810.. - but macam boleh turun lagi - maybe..

ok.. ptng ni tiada economic data yng penting dari Euro Zone cuma sebelah malamnya saja ada 'US trade balance' .. so ape ape hal tido dulu, lagipun ngantuk sangat ni. today pivot and resistance seperti berikut..

• 3rd resistance - 1.31957


• 2nd resistance - 1.30950


• 1st resistance - 1.30327


• PIVOT POINT - 1.29319


• 1st support - 1.28312


• 2nd support - 1.27689


• 3rd support - 1.26681

sekarang - 11.55am price just 'flat' diantara today pivot dan 1st support. ada satu perkara yng interesting.. pivot point bagi hari Isnin iaitu 1.28925 still play a part. so something will develope from here..

sebelum pergi kerja..

now price dah pun stay above pivot point. ok ada analisis menarik dari Barclays Capital.. diorang still fokus upside.. brake above 1.3120 would bring 1.3700 but right now prefer continuation range between 1.2725-1.3025.. interesting.

yesterday pivot still play a part..

interesting...yesterday pivot iaitu 1.28925 combined dgn 23.6% Fibo create a temporary support dan sekarang price terus jump ke area 1.2975. OK.. now price near 61.8% Fibo dan ada trendline just above Fibo iaitu di area 1.3000/10 so maybe sekarang price would be near the turning point*. If that so then next 7 hours kita akn lihat price would test kembali area 1.2810.. signal is mixed, dalam one hour chart is look like price still can go higher same as 30 minit chart..

* now 8.05pm price just few inch below today pivot level iaitu 1.29897..

Hari ni masuk keja pukul 9.00 malam.. so terlepas peluang untk lihat price action masa Mr.Ben testifies nanti..

1.3090 - Key Resistance Level..

Very limited time today.. balik keja pun dah pukul 10:30 pagi then pukul 9:00 malam nanti masuk keja balik. well seperti yng dijangka semalam euro accelerate to 1.3060 dan failed di area 1.3090 dan pagi tadi terus decline kembali ke paras 1.2810. Ok.. apa yng market sedang buat sekarang?

• saya believe 1.3090 adalah 'key level resistance' untk minggu ini.. so tonight when Mr.Ben speak -who's Mr.Ben? Ben Bernanke.. Federal Reserve Chairman. Bila dia speak tonight.. if ada good news for dollar then market akn buat 'key level support' pula which maybe below 1.2800. Then.. hari khamis nanti selepas data 'advance retails' diumumkan market players akn decide which key level they should brake..

today pivot, support dan resistance

• 3rd resistance - 1.32081


• 2nd resistance - 1.31247


• 1st resistance - 1.30732


• PIVOT POINT - 1.29897 - now pukul 5.00pm,price stay below this level


• 1st support - 1.29063 -already broken pagi tadi..


• 2nd support - 1.28548 - broken but touch only..


• 3rd support - 1.27713 - probably will become key level support for thursday event..


• yesterday pivot point is 1.28925 - now 5.00pm, price dancing around here..

dibawah adalah petikan news dari Dow Jones masa euro drop pagi tadi...

By Takashi Mochizuki

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The euro fell sharply in Asia Tuesday on a Japanese report that Russian banks will ask foreign banks to reschedule loans worth up to $400 billion, reigniting worries about risk in the European financial sector.
The European currency fell to as low as $1.2819 from $1.3000 earlier in the day, and to Y116.65 from Y119.00, after the publication of a Nikkei interview with Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Russian Association of Regional Banks, that quoted him as saying the association has submitted a plan to the government for approval for the debt rescheduling.
"This may be refocusing attention back on Eastern European financial troubles," said Greg Gibbs, director of foreign exchange strategy at ABN Amro in Sydney.
"It will drag on general risk appetite and the (euro), given the bigger exposure of major banks in Western Europe to lending in emerging markets."
The increased risk aversion sparked by the report also caused Asian investors to rush to sell other currencies, such as the pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, against the U.S. dollar and the yen, the two safe haven currencies.
The pound, for example, fell to $1.4774 from $1.4900 at 2330 GMT.
Some traders said they are waiting for confirmation about the report from other sources.
"The report is a surprise, but the problem is that the Nikkei is the only news agency reporting the issue, thus we are not sure whether the report is true," said Minoru Shioiri, a senior dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in Tokyo. "And if it is, then the euro will likely enter a major downturn."
If the report is verified, however, "the impact on the euro-zone economy will be large and liquidity problems in the region will likely arise again," said Yuji Saito, head of FX Group at Societe Generale in Tokyo, noting that a large number of investors likely own such loans.
He said that the euro and other European currencies could fall further when the European session starts.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 09, 2009 21:49 ET (02:49 GMT)

next time..

next time.. bila price buat retracement dan 'fail' di area 50% atau 61.8% consider untk enter position buy atau sell- depend pada chart- sbb its a signal of turning point. petang tadi price fail sebelum 50% Fibo dan reverse terus ke 1.3000, today pivot point - 1.28920 - prove strong. Now.. should 0.0% fibo became support, price should accelerate to 1.3060 and probably fail di area tesebut.

change..

right now most signal is point downward for euro. my pivot point is 1.28920 with first support at 1.27985 and first resistance is 1.29855. Technical analizer pivot is at 1.29750. So far saya lihat seperti ada selling pressure.. .but let see how strong 1.28920 pivot point..

Ahead to Euro open..

Now price stay and dancing around 38.2% Fibo levels.. dan yng menariknya price juga stay dalam 2 trendline.. signals is mixed, there is a talk said large stops above 1.3000. While technical analizer still favor upside move which target 1..3025. IFR tech team juga long at 1.2975 with stop at 1.2900 dan target 1.3200. For myself.. saya akn lihat how price react bila meet dgn 2 trendline tersebut..

This week economic schedule..

Ok.. this week schedule for market sangat interesting..

On US front -

• Tuesday 18:00GMT/13:00EST - Mr.Ben testified on policy actions, this one could provide volatility terutamanya bagi dollar, dia akn explain why Federal Reserve on Friday lepas delay action bagi TALF - Term Assets-Back Securities Lending Facility, berdasarkan pengalaman.. market boleh volatile baik semasa dia mula bercakap, semasa bercakap dan selepas bercakap, lagi pun TALF isu sangat penting kerana melibatkan institusi kewangan besar di US seperti Morgan Stanley, Goldman dan etc..
• Wednesday 13:30GMT/08:30EST - Trade Balance, survey predict -36.4B berbanding prior -40.4B dan pada pukul 19:00GMT/ 14:00EST ada Monthly Budget Statement, survey predict -75.0B berbanding prior -83.6B. Ok.. trade balance probably akn bagi impact sikit pada market.. sbb semua orng tahu US punya trade balance memang tak balance..
• Thursday 13:30GMT/08:30EST - Advance Retails Sales, survey predict -0.4%, ok yang ini memang sangat-sangat la penting, saya fikir market especially euro mungkin boleh buat brake-out either above 1.3200 or below 1.2700. Mana2 negara pun inilah salah satu indicator yng memang diperhatikan. Nama pun 'retails sales' so kita akn tengok how strong consumer berbelanja, sekiranya below dari prediction.. let say -0.5 then euro will win but sekiranya data say -0.3% then semua players akn resume sama ada boleh ke tidak bagi dollar untk 'gain'. Tapi sayang aku keja malam so tak dapat nak tengok market action.. just check price melalui GPRS..
• Friday pula ada University of Michigan Confidence Index, data keluar pada pukul 15:00GMT/10:00EST.. impact pada market bagi data ni maybe market akn continue trend yng develope pada hari khamis dan juga Jumaat ptng.

OK.. seterusnya untk EURO ZONE pula..

• Monday 07:00GMT/02:00EST - German Trade Balance, suvey predict 8.0B prior 9.7B.. Ok. yng ni penting sbb German merupakan negara terpenting dalam Euro Zone..
• Thursday 10:00GMT/05:00EST - Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM), survey predict -2.4% berbanding prior -1.6%. OK.. data yng ini akn bertindih dgn data yng juga important dari US iaitu Advance Retail Sales so saya jangkakan data yng ini impactnya market euro akn buat either key support atau resistance.. sebelum brake-out pada sebelah malamnya..
• Friday punya data lagi best pukul 12:00GMT German GDP (QoQ), survey predict -1.8% berbanding prior -0.5% dan selang 2 jam seterusnya Euro-Zone GDP (QoQ), survey predict -1.3% prior -0.2% . Apa itu GDP? Gross Domestic Product atau dalam Bahasa disebut Keluaran dalam Negara Kasar.. juga sangat penting.

OK.. this week aku keja malam so manafaat sepenuhnya trading pada waktu petang.

decide...

selepas fikir panjang selama seminggu so today aku decide esok aku nak top-up akaun real forex yng berdaftar dgn fxpro.com. selepas merudum akhir tahun lepas bakinya masih cukup untk aku buat trading bagi satu lot.. tapi tak boleh nak stay long dalam market. so just top-up bagi strong sikit akaun tu.

Lagipun ini jelah bidang yng aku faham, seperti dlm entry yng lepas. aku tak pandai nak buat keja lain.. inilah bidang yng paling aku minat. mudah mudahan aku diberikan ketenangan dan ilham dalam menguruskan akaun ini sampai buat profit yng paling banyak..

they looking for a buy..

analisis menarik dari dailyfx.com suggest buy euro pada 1.3070 and target profit pada 1.3300 dan stop loss pada 1.2890. ok based on previous chart, maknanya kena tunggu sampai price naik above 50% Fibo dan near 68.2% Fibo... jauh gila. manakala dalam technical analizer (fxcm) diorang suggest buy above 1.2870 and target 1.3025 & 1.3075..

next time...

next time.. bila price stay above 23.6% Fibo dan buat small 'flag' especially di 30minit chart just enter position buy sbb ini adalah strong indicator for buy... but sometimes this small flag also boleh lead price lower.. so macam mana nak detect? not sure, kena study lagi. However seperti yng dijangka so far price fail before 50% Fibo resistance sebelum market closing pada pukul 5 pagi tadi. adakah market still bullish? no idea... juga ada article menarik dari elliotwave.com aku letak pada link yng bertajuk 'teach yourself to watch not/then act' maksudnya perhati dulu betul2 market sebelum masuk position dan kenapa mesti perlu setiap hari masuk position dalam market kalau hanya menyebabkan kerugian.. nice to read.

triangle - brake out or fake out?

article menarik aku baca dari dailymarkets.com. aku link pada title

EURO - 50% Fibo sebagai resistance...

dari 2 minggu lepas aku perhatikan kebanyakan analisis yng dibuat oleh 'mat saleh2' kat US ni semuanya salah, diorang long (buy) euro tapi price sejak minggu lepas still decline. ok.. aku rasa- boleh ke main rasa-rasa?- berdasarkan chart 50% Fibonacci akn bertindak sebagai resistance malah rasanya 38.2% Fibo pun akn halt sebarang momentum untk price go upside.. tengok next week cemane jadinya. ada article pada title*

well...

hari nih macam biasa adalah hari yng membosankan.. takder ape yng menarik buat aku yng keja sebagai cashier. cuma bersyukur jugaklah daripada aku lansung tak ade keje. balik keja makan sambil tengok market.. memang itu rutin aku sejak 2 tahun yng lalu, dah banyak aku melabur tapi untungnya2 belum juga.. balik2 kena call margin. kalo aku kumpul semuanya, dah boleh beli satu rumah teres 2 tingkat. tapi nak tak nak kena study juga sbb ini jela pun bidang yng aku tahu.. nak suruh aku lukis pelan aku tak pandai, nak bawak kapal terbang.. merempit boleh la, nak jadi manager aku ni tak pandai nak mengarah, tapi kalau tengok dan study market... insyaallah 5 jam aku ngadap laptop ni tengok chart turun naik tak ader masalah. jadi baik aku continue study dan buat analisis market nih..

cuma yng tensionnya.. skrang market dah jadi makin susah sikit nak buat prediction selepas semua market merudum pada tahun lepas. nak buat cemana study jugak la. kejap tadi aku happy kejap sbb dah dapat 'tepek' template baru.. gambar belon2 nih.. lawa betul .. : )

permulaan..

well... takdak cerita happy yng aku nak cerita buat masa nih, hati penuh dgn perasaan boring dan kecewa. tadi aku nak download template baru.. tapi dah setengah jam tak jugak boleh2.. tak tau apa la problemnya. malam karang lepas balik keja aku cuba lagi..